Using data and technology in horse racing betting

The use of data and technology to inform sports analysis and betting decisions has grown exponentially in recent years. The public has never been in a stronger position to examine this information as much or as little as it wants. Here we see how its works on horse racing betting.

Gone are the days when NFL analysis could be just based on what appeared obvious to the naked eye. Now, there is an expectation for analysts to explain in greater detail why a team chooses a certain play on first down or why the quarterback passes to a specific receiver in a specific zone of the field.

Likewise in soccer, a play caller needs to use data, such as expected goals; to dive deeper into why a team is over-performing or, in some cases, under-performing. This data also feeds into decisions around betting, too. A team’s leading goalscorer may not always be the best value player to be a game’s first goalscorer.

Jena Antonucci creates Triple Crown history

Horse racing also works in the same way where data and technology combine to give bettors all the detail they need to make the best-informed decisions around their betting selections. The industry has been revitalized through the use of technology across all aspects; from the training of horses to racing and betting on the events themselves. For example, here are just some of the many technological advancements that have aided horse racing in the last decade:

• Tracking software worn by the horses – this provides useful data regarding speed and performance, which can aid trainers
• Grounding technology – used to measure the firmness of the racing track
• Online betting – accessible by desktop and mobile devices

On the last point especially, horse race betting is far more dynamic with online markets in that bettors have countless tournaments to choose from as well as variations of bets. It’s no longer the case that bettors blindly place a bet; assuming a horse is worthy because it won its last race. With the likes of outright, special, future racing, and in-play markets to choose from; bettors can place their wagers on much more than who will simply win. Not only this but with betting tips from industry experts available at just a tap of a button and statistics galore; there’s a vast array of sources online that support bettors’ research before they place their wagers.

With such in-depth and accurate data regarding not just the horse, but also the likes of the trainer; and jockey, it is easier than ever for bettors to form an objective stance when it comes to gambling.

Jena Antonucci:

Jena Antonucci recently became the first female trainer to win a Triple Crown race when Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes, sending her horse up against colts trained by the likes of Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. While Antonucci’s overall win strike rate may not match the more illustrious names, being able to break down her strike rate for horses running in Graded stakes races on dirt would have given you an indication that Arcangelo was the type of horse worth noting in the betting.

For instance, Antonucci’s overall record when running a horse in a stakes race on either dirt or turf has resulted in a 10 percent win strike rate and a 25 percent win or place strike rate; and using this data would not immediately have drawn your eye to Arcangelo’s chances; especially given Antonucci’s relatively low profile as a trainer.

However, when you filter the data to the criteria which would fit the profile of the race Arcangelo was running in, a Graded stakes race on dirt, then that is when you would be able to see why Arcangelo appeared such a value bet at odds in the region of +1000.

Belmont Stakes:

On the back of Arcangelo’s win in the Belmont Stakes, Antonucci now has a record of two wins from 10 runners in Graded stakes and a place strike rate of 50 percent. So, given Arcangelo’s profile going into the Belmont Stakes of a horse on an upward trajectory and Antonucci’s own record in races of this nature, the data indicates why the horse would have been a value bet.

Where data and technology in horse racing unite particularly strongly is when betting in-running. For instance, GPS positioning technology is available which streams the data live; in-running during a race, and provides details such as the speed of horses and split times, vital factors for decision-making.

Using this information alongside pre-race research is particularly useful for bettors; who want to find value or an edge once the race is underway. If you know a particular racetrack favors horses who have a go-forward run style; then you can quickly filter out horses who would usually sit off the pace; or you could quickly put a line through those with a wide gate position; if there is going to be a short run to the first bend.

Arazi’s jaw-dropping Breeders’ Cup win

Likewise, if you see a field stacked with pace horses; then you can focus on a horse with a hold-up style to take advantage of the likely pace collapse late in the race. That type of horse may have longer betting odds after the race starts than at post time. If you had been able to bet in-running on Arazi in the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; then you would probably have got much bigger odds after the gates opened given how far back he sat before weaving through the field for his spectacular win.

Many people will use the data and technology available for in-running betting to try to lock in a guaranteed return from their bets and this is something that can be done across a range of sports. The huge difference between in-running betting in horse racing and other sports; such as NFL or soccer, is the time factor.

A sports game lasting 60 minutes or even 90 minutes gives the bettor ample time to make a decision on whether to trade their original bet by laying some of it off. But, in horse racing, especially in races over five or six furlongs; then there is huge time pressure to make that decision.

There are different ways that this scenario can be handled; and it largely depends on how much time an individual wants to invest. This is another example where technology can be used for in-running betting as the use of automated betting bots can allow a bettor to set certain parameters for when a bet should either be placed or laid off if a certain price target is met during the race.

Conclusion:

The knowledge base sports fans and bettors can now build up is immense due to such wide availability of data and statistics. Data packages can be tailored to an individual’s needs; enabling you to focus on creating a dataset that lets you know; when it is the right time to focus on a particular jockey at a particular racetrack, for example.

With such widely available data; there really is no longer a reason why a sports fan should make an ill-informed analysis or decision.